1.19.2005

Baseball Amateur Draft is More of A Crapshoot Than Thought (Second in series of three articles)

In my first article, "Sabean's Draft Record: Better Than Fans Think," I examined how the Giants did compared to other teams who were forced by their success to draft low in the first round. In this second article, I examine how teams in general have done in the draft since Sabean first handled the draft for the Yankees in 1986 and how that fits in with his tactic of signing free agents and giving up draft picks.

Here is the link to my article, "Baseball Amateur Draft is More of A Crapshoot Than".

Please leave any comments here, thanks.


2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

First off, GO BEARS!!!!

Second, great article. I happen to agree with you, but have one question... what about the value of prospects in anchoring future trades. I know Sabien like to dish prospects for veterans as the trade deadline approaches and was wondering how this draft strategy would play out in the long run. respond to miketam7@berkeley.edu if you have the interest and the time. Keep the info comming.

Mon Jan 31, 02:32:00 PM PST  
Blogger obsessivegiantscompulsive said...

"what about the value of prospects in anchoring future trades. I know Sabien like to dish prospects for veterans as the trade deadline approaches and was wondering how this draft strategy would play out in the long run."

I guess my point was that he would have the same prospects (for the most part) he would have had he kept the draft picks, only he would have paid less in bonuses because he would have drafted them in later rounds.

About the long run, I was going to comment on that in my final part but I guess I can talk a little about it here first. Long run I think it works as long as they are winning and getting a draft pick in the 20-30 pick range for their first round pick. The odds are very low of getting a good or star player and useful players are cheaper to acquire via free agency than by drafting.

Looking it over, even middle of the road picks have not been very high odds of finding a star or good player. So I would not have a huge problem with him losing the 1st round pick if the Giants were still in the middle of the pack. Only if they were in the top 10 would I have a problem.

Tue Feb 01, 10:15:00 PM PST  

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