Hey, we got the 10th pick! (as I posted on McCovey)

If I counted the records right, the Giants should have the 10th pick of the 2006 draft. According to the stats I had collected, there is about a 1 in 9 chance of drafting a star player with a Top 10 draft pick, about a 1 in 5 chance of getting at least a good player with a 10th pick; the odds go down greatly after the 20th pick, by more than half, when considering 1st round picks (not including supplemental picks). So hopefully Sabean isn't talking all hot air about not signing as much free agents and relying on rookies or trades or even non-tenders (since he mentioned that but downplayed trades) to fill spots.

As much as fans have been talking about signing free agents, we have been forgetting that this would cost us a premium draft pick this year - past years' picks were in the 25-30 range where the odds of finding a good player was not very good at all. But the 10th pick should give us about a 20% chance of finding at least a good player.

Addendum: Found out on McCovey that teams cannot lose a 15th pick or better via a free agent signing. Cool!