9.20.2005

Analysis of Winn and Matheny I posted on McCovey Chronicles

I thought, why not put that stuff here as well for people who don't read that blog, sorry to those who come to both here and McCovey Chronicles.

Winn Analysis

From BP's 2005 edition, they first criticized his defense early in 2004 season but then he pulled himself together and did much better, both defensively and offensively. Says that his contract, based on what he was doing at the end of the 2004 season, doesn't look so bad, saying it is a good deal.

They said that there was a 7% chance of a breakout, a 32% chance of improvement, and a 25% chance of collapse. Overall, with this late burst, looks like an improvement, especially with such low chances of a breakout.

One point about Winn's "flukey" month. Unlike what I wrote about Matheny below, Winn has been doing it both at SBC and on the road as his SBC stats are similar to overall stats, which means the road is very similar:

Total .345/.380/.667/1.046 16 AB/HR
SBC .347/.389/.634/1.023 20 AB/HR

But it doesn't hurt leaving SAFECO Field:
SAFECO .284/.364/.395/.759 48 AB/HR {correction, had incorrectly posted 95}

His road right now:
Road .287/.332/.478/.810 27 AB/HR

As noted, his road hitting stats while a Giants isn't far from his SBC (don't have time to calc exact but since total is approximately SBC, the road while a Giants should be close) but his AB/HR is much better at 12 AB/HR vs. 20 AB/HR at SBC. Of course, smaller sample with only 77 AB (with a visit to homer-happy BOB but he also liked hitting in LA) plus he's about to visit RFK Stadium, which has severely depressed HR rates, many of (all?) their starters have starkly different success rates with homers home vs. road. However, he had hit well there in his only trip there while a Mariner, 5 for 9 with a double.

Matheny has benefited greatly from SBC in 2005

Where he has improved, overall, is via his hitting at SBC and specifically his HR hitting.

Whether it is:

Pre-ASG or Post-ASG at home for 2005 (23AB/HR and 31 AB/HR respectively; I compiled this by hand for those who are curious) or

Pre-ASG/Post-ASG career (26 pre/45 post AB/HR in 2005 vs. 66/62 pre-2005) or

hitting situations All/Empty/Runners/RISP (34/32/37/27 AB/HR in 2005, 68/62/81/94 pre-2005; just interesting, not explanatory) or

Home/Road (27/41 in 2005 vs. 58/72 pre-2005).

By homefield (career):

Mil .257/.303/.380/.684 47 AB/HR
STL .256/.323/.347/.671 64 AB/HR
SFG .255/.292/.428/.720 37 AB/HR and
SFG .250/.290/.442/.732 27 AB/HR for 2005

He just loves hitting HRs in SBC this year. And I specifically compiled his HR hitting at home after the ASG to see if he had kept the pace up; he has pretty much has with a 31 AB/HR rate vs. the 23 AB/HR rate pre-ASG. So that suggests that he would be able to continue this into 2006.

However, he had 85 ABs without a homer at SBC while with the Cardinal's. So it could just be some lucky year for him, like his version of Brady Anderson's spike. Or maybe Giants pitchers were good at preventing HR at home while other teams aren't.

In addition, his spike has happened mainly when there were men on base, in particular RISP where he has hit .340/.424/.577/1.001 with 4 HR in 97 AB vs. .264/.341/.372/.713 with 14 HR in 809 AB, which has helped his RBI total greatly this season vs. his career.

It will be interesting which Matheny we get next year. According to Baseball Prospectus, there was a 13% chance of breakout, 28% of improvement, 43% of collapse for the 2005 season, so I guess he ticked off in the 28% who improved for 2005.

Speaking of BP, they noted that defensively, he has been almost a win and a half better than Pudge over the last six seasons, but that his poor offense during his career does not make it worth while (at least according to their defensive measures).

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